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Community & Regional Development

Current Spending
$41.0B
Optimal Spending
$102.8B
Gap
$61.8B (+150.8%)
Under-invested
Evidence Grade
D
Weak evidence
Estimated

Fixed-Budget Reallocation

Constrained Optimal
$77.6B
Reallocation
+$36.6B
+89.2% of current
Action
Major increase

Current vs Optimal

Current$41.0B
Optimal$102.8B
Marginal return per dollar: 16.57%

Diminishing Returns Analysis

Model Type
Saturation (Michaelis-Menten)
R² (Model Fit)
100%
Elasticity
0.37
1% spending increase → 0.37% outcome change
N = 8 observationsSmall sample (n≤10) — may overfit

Outcome Metrics

Housing Affordability Index
52
decreasing
Community Development Score
55
stable

Scale UpRECOMMENDATION

Spending on Community & Regional Development should be increased by $61.8B (+150.8%) to reach the optimal allocation of $102.8B.

Marginal Return
16.57%
Share of Total Budget
0.6%
Income Effect
+2%
Health Effect
+1%

Budget Context

Category share (current)0.6%
Category share (optimal)1.2%

How Is Optimal Calculated?

The Optimal Budget Generator (OBG) uses a diminishing-returns framework to allocate spending across categories. Each budget category is modeled with a concave utility function — the first dollar spent on a category produces more welfare than the billionth dollar.

Budget Impact Score (BIS)

Each category's BIS is computed from outcome metrics weighted by their importance to overall welfare. The BIS captures how effectively each marginal dollar translates into measurable improvements in health, education, security, and quality of life.

Diminishing Returns Model

Spending follows a logarithmic utility curve: U(x) = α · ln(x + 1) where α is calibrated from the category's marginal return coefficient. The optimal allocation equalizes the marginal utility per dollar across all categories — the point where reallocating $1 from any category to another would not improve total welfare.

Marginal Return (16.57% for Community & Regional Development)

The marginal return of 16.57% means each additional dollar currently spent on Community & Regional Development produces 16.57 cents of welfare value. Categories with higher marginal returns are underfunded relative to their potential; those with lower returns are overfunded.

The total budget constraint is maintained at $6.75T. The optimizer reallocates within this envelope to maximize aggregate welfare measured by the BIS-weighted outcome metrics across all 19 categories.

See the Optimal Budget Generator paper for full methodology.

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Generated 3/12/2026 · Optimitron OBG

Optimitron — The Evidence-Based Earth Optimization Machine