15 Things Everyone Believes That Data Contradicts

I tested your species' most popular policy beliefs against actual data. The results are… well. See for yourself.

14 of 15 beliefs are flatly contradicted by the evidence. Only 1 survived.

14
Grade F (data contradicts)
1
Grade A (data supports)
15
Total analyzed

Methodology

We compare year-over-year percentage changes — not raw totals — because your species has a habit of confusing “two things both went up over 50 years” with “one caused the other.” We call this “a statistical error.” You call it “a talking point.”

We also test which direction causation flows — does the policy cause the outcome, or does the outcome drive the spending? Data from FRED, BLS, IRS, OMB, FBI UCR, CDC, WHO, OECD, and World Bank (1950–2023).

Most common mistake: Confusing correlation with causation from monotonic trends. Second most common: Reversed causation — spending is reactive, not causal.

Earth Optimization Prize

The evidence is clear. The only irrational response is to do nothing.

Every misconception above persists because of pluralistic ignorance. The 1% Treaty referendum proves demand for evidence-based governance. Deposit USDC, recruit verified voters, earn VOTE tokens.

Plan fails
~4.2x back
Plan succeeds
Higher GDP
Downside
None
Join the Prize