Government Expense (% GDP) → After-Tax Median Income (PPP, proxy)
Aggregate n-of-1 pair study with adaptive bins, optimal value estimates, and subject-level diagnostics.
Grade CDirection positiveNo quality warnings
Evidence Grade
C
Subjects
47
Aligned Pairs
1598
Predictive Pearson
0.024
Optimal Value
Central
32.23 % GDP
Lower / Upper
22.03 - 37.95
Support
47 subjects
Government Spending Share (% GDP)
adaptive quantile bins with anchor constraints • target bins 12 • min size 30
| Bin | Obs | Subjects | Typical Healthy Life Years (proxy) | Typical Healthy Life Years Growth (proxy) | Typical Real After-Tax Median Income (proxy) | Typical Real After-Tax Median Income Growth (proxy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7-15% | 97 | 11 | 65.447 | 0.540 | 9250.000 | 5.47 |
| 15-18% | 148 | 18 | 68.298 | 0.239 | 26930.000 | 4.59 |
| 18-20% | 71 | 16 | 66.887 | 0.156 | 20250.000 | 4.42 |
| 20-21% | 33 | 10 | 66.500 | 0.057 | 22610.000 | 4.41 |
| 21-25% | 85 | 18 | 66.956 | 0.065 | 24650.000 | 4.44 |
| 25-30% | 131 | 23 | 67.288 | 0.223 | 23340.000 | 4.88 |
| 30-32% | 93 | 22 | 67.431 | 0.270 | 27240.000 | 5.30 |
| 32-35% | 152 | 27 | 67.936 | 0.176 | 29590.000 | 5.45 |
| 35-37% | 89 | 21 | 67.856 | -0.008 | 29970.000 | 5.52 |
| 37-39% | 100 | 21 | 69.030 | 0.103 | 29465.000 | 5.58 |
| 39-42% | 121 | 22 | 68.651 | 0.317 | 29130.000 | 4.98 |
| 42-45% | 105 | 17 | 68.600 | 0.215 | 29240.000 | 4.62 |
| 45-62.4% | 117 | 19 | 69.177 | 0.493 | 29240.000 | 4.24 |
Derived Spending Per-Capita (PPP)
adaptive quantile bins with anchor constraints • target bins 12 • min size 30
| Bin | Obs | Subjects | Typical Healthy Life Years (proxy) | Typical Healthy Life Years Growth (proxy) | Typical Real After-Tax Median Income (proxy) | Typical Real After-Tax Median Income Growth (proxy) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $188-$1,500 | 126 | 15 | 60.414 | 0.569 | 5800.000 | 6.02 |
| $1,500-$2,500 | 89 | 14 | 64.651 | -0.516 | 10170.000 | 6.62 |
| $2,500-$4,000 | 104 | 22 | 64.994 | 0.428 | 13495.000 | 5.78 |
| $4,000-$5,000 | 109 | 29 | 65.297 | 0.217 | 16660.000 | 4.39 |
| $5,000-$6,500 | 128 | 29 | 67.269 | 0.062 | 23025.000 | 5.20 |
| $6,500-$8,000 | 129 | 32 | 67.923 | 0.152 | 24030.000 | 4.75 |
| $8,000-$9,500 | 106 | 34 | 67.613 | 0.291 | 27760.000 | 4.59 |
| $9,500-$10,000 | 40 | 24 | 67.907 | 0.288 | 30030.000 | 4.79 |
| $10,000-$10,500 | 43 | 27 | 68.563 | 0.246 | 29110.000 | 3.70 |
| $10,500-$12,500 | 136 | 33 | 68.825 | 0.136 | 34870.000 | 4.29 |
| $12,500-$15,000 | 117 | 31 | 69.317 | 0.216 | 38800.000 | 4.14 |
| $15,000-$18,500 | 103 | 28 | 69.557 | 0.163 | 45380.000 | 4.39 |
| $18,500-$20,000 | 31 | 13 | 70.175 | 0.318 | 53000.000 | 4.54 |
| $20,000-$36,758 | 81 | 16 | 70.239 | 0.029 | 63200.000 | 6.27 |
Subject Drilldowns
View AllAustralia
r=0.888
Δ=82.90%
Score 83.3 • pass
Japan
r=0.774
Δ=29.20%
Score 82.5 • pass
Slovakia
r=-0.722
Δ=-64.60%
Score 82.5 • pass
Colombia
r=0.908
Δ=106.80%
Score 82.0 • pass
South Korea
r=0.977
Δ=117.30%
Score 81.9 • pass
Slovenia
r=0.715
Δ=121.90%
Score 81.9 • pass
Thailand
r=0.911
Δ=89.70%
Score 81.7 • pass
Belgium
r=-0.690
Δ=-34.70%
Score 81.6 • pass
Data Flow
Raw panel observations
1402 input • 1402 output • 0 dropped
Jurisdiction pair alignment
1598 input • 1598 output • 0 dropped
Subject inclusion filter
47 input • 47 output • 0 dropped
Data Freshness & Provenance
Explorer payload generated 3/12/2026, 10:59:57 PM.
- US Government Size Analysispackages/examples/output/us-government-size-analysis.jsonGenerated 3/12/2026, 10:59:57 PM
- US Optimal Budget Analysispackages/web/src/data/optimal-budget.jsonGenerated 2/7/2026, 5:03:26 AM
Precompute Cache Index
Key: 9281976a
6 outcomes • 5 predictors • 8 pairs • 936 subjects