Gates Foundation has the opportunity to fund the highest expected-value charitable intervention ever calculated.
The International Campaign to End War and Disease prevents one disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for $0.00177. That is 50,300 times more cost-effective than insecticide-treated bednets, the current gold standard in global health philanthropy.
Suggested grant: $1.
At our cost-effectiveness ratio, $1 prevents approximately 565 DALYs, which is roughly 16 healthy life-years. If you would like to prevent more healthy life-years, you may increase the amount.
At $100, you prevent 56,497 DALYs (1,614 healthy life-years). At $1,000, you prevent 564,972 DALYs (16,142 healthy life-years). At $100,000, you save approximately 3,200 lives.
These are not projections. They are the output of a cost-benefit model with 670 parameters, Monte Carlo simulation, and complete derivation chains. The model, methodology, and every input parameter are published with 95% confidence intervals at manual.warondisease.org.
We understand this sounds implausible. We have checked the math. The math does not care whether it sounds implausible.