Government Size
Whole-government floor, not just federal line items
This view asks a different question from OBG: how much total government spending is consistent with strong direct welfare outcomes in the cross-country panel, before we even argue about composition.
Objective floors
The headline floor is not the only one published. These variants show how the answer moves when you isolate health-only versus combined direct welfare objectives.
Combined Direct Welfare
23.4%
US-equivalent spending share
Band 22.5% to 24.3%
18 qualifying jurisdictions
Healthy Life Expectancy Only
20.1%
US-equivalent spending share
Band 18.2% to 22.5%
29 qualifying jurisdictions
Median Income Only
27.8%
US-equivalent spending share
Band 24.3% to 44.7%
16 qualifying jurisdictions
Start-year sensitivity
| Window | Floor | Band | US status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 to 2023primary | 23.4% | 22.5% - 24.3% | above optimal band |
| 1995 to 2023 | 27.8% | 24.3% - 44.7% | within optimal band |
| 2000 to 2023 | 22.0% | 20.0% - 24.3% | above optimal band |
Efficient jurisdictions
Jurisdictions with repeated observations inside the minimum-efficient per-capita band.
Finland
2 qualifying observations
$19,030
37.5% GDP
Denmark
5 qualifying observations
$19,082
39.9% GDP
Norway
2 qualifying observations
$19,373
33.0% GDP
France
3 qualifying observations
$19,755
49.1% GDP
Federal composition implications
This composition model is federal-budget only; the category table below is constrained to the current federal budget even though standalone category optima sum to a different total.
Top scale-ups
Education
281.9% reallocation · target share 13.5%
Income Security (SNAP, Housing)
61.4% reallocation · target share 7.3%
Science & Space (NASA, NSF)
217.0% reallocation · target share 3.8%
Community & Regional Development
102.4% reallocation · target share 1.2%
Energy Programs
56.1% reallocation · target share 1.2%
Top scale-downs
Military
-59.7% reallocation · target share 5.3%
Category budgets
Return to the federal line-item analysis.
Efficiency rankings
See the cross-country comparators driving the budget case.
Optimization Dividend
Translate the savings into household-level outcomes.
Generated 4/6/2026 from the current government-size analysis artifact.